A Quarterback, Not a Cheerleader

It’s easy to fight an enemy who has tangible, visible assets to shoot at. Warfare in its conventional form - tanks, planes, ships and men can be damaged, shot down, sunk and killed. Donald Trump declared war on the coronavirus, and like so many other governments that did so, saw how bluster often gives way when battling a far more insidious enemy than anything created by men.

The President and his government have consistently struggled to exercise effective leadership over this foe. On some days, Trump seems to listen to his health experts and understands the gravity of the situation. On other days, he reverts to narcissism, praise-seeking, erratic decisions and picking petty fights.

To paraphrase another “wartime leader” – Margaret Thatcher – this is no time to go wobbly. Or give the impression of doing so.

Fortunately, American history has provided ample precedent to follow. To steady the ship, the President should look to his predecessors and apply the lessons of leadership from American history. Where that measurement of presidential timbre and temperament is concerned there can be no better source than the man most historian rank as the second greatest Chief Executive, former President Franklin D. Roosevelt.

Beset by a pervasive national mood of isolationism in 1940, President Roosevelt was publicly committed to staying out of the war then raging in Europe and Asia, even though he understood more than most the growing danger of Adolf Hitler and knew America would inevitably be dragged into the fight. He also knew that the US was woefully unprepared. Its all-volunteer army was a joke -- only about 180,000 servicemen (smaller than Portugal's) -- and its economy simply didn't have the manufacturing capacity to arm itself, let alone produce the military machinery to support other friendly nations as well.

Even so, FDR understood that the US was in no position to wait; it could hope for the best but needed to prepare for the worst. That is why he declared that America would become "an arsenal of democracy" and promised to help provide military supplies to the United Kingdom in the fight against Nazi Germany. In fact, he came very close to breaking the spirit of the constitution by personally authorizing the “Lend-Lease” program which would provide Britain with fifty-three destroyers in exchange for several strategic bases. At the time, with public opinion any act that might be seen as “provocative,” and by bypassing Congress, FDR himself thought he ran the risk of impeachment, avoided only by the masterfulness of his ability to charm his way out of any jam.

Perhaps more significantly, FDR publicly set a goal to manufacture 50,000 planes a year -- even though the US military produced less than 6,000 in 1939. Experts scoffed, but FDR, a relentless optimist who radiated perpetual good cheer, felt that the US and its citizens could accomplish anything when united in purpose and common cause. His instincts also knew that, even if public opinion was not yet fully behind him, circumstances would create this groundswell. Germany and Japan had in place regimes which were simply too provocative.

Not content to rely on presidential writ or fiat Roosevelt sought allies and agents of his will from the American private sector. William Knudsen, the president of General Motors at the time, was well versed in mass production and turned his expertise toward manufacturing armaments. Soon, with FDR's blessing, Knudsen went to other companies and began to pull in those that wanted to work with the government. It didn't take long before more than 900 companies came on board in the war effort.

Next to be tapped was Ferdinand Eberstadt, a former investment banker. Eberstadt came up with a uniquely American approach to managing the creation of the war machines. The government centralized control and distribution over three strategic resources: steel, copper, and aluminium, an initiative preventing private competition from both price gouging, and price-setting through collusion. It also allowed the government to prioritize what was needed most at any given moment, while still allowing the private sector the freedom to earn profit and oversee actual production.

Concurrently, citizens everywhere were mobilized. Women were brought into the workforce in unprecedented numbers — giving rise to the iconic illustration of “Rosie the Riveter” which became synonymous with the production effort. Any man who did not put on a uniform was put to work, too (though discrimination against African-Americans remained). Unemployment fell from over 17% in 1939 to 1.2% by 1944.

The results of this unprecedented mobilization were nothing short of staggering: Throughout the course of the war, the country produced 12,000 warships, 41 billion rounds of ammunition, 17 million firearms, 86,000 tanks, two million army trucks and 300,000 planes, exceeding by far Roosevelt's lofty goal. In fact, the Ford Motor Company built a storied reputation at its Willow Run plant, where, according to PBS, a B-24 Liberator long-range bomber made up of more than 1.5 million parts rolled off the production line every hour by the end of the war.

This story is full of important lessons not for leadership in Washington today, but in all national capitals. First and foremost, it is a source for hope: Americans then and now can be mobilized to meet the country's greatest challenges. That confidence is crucial in this moment.

Most of all. the fight against the coronavirus can only be won through central coordination and partnership. Trump must abandon blaming the previous administration, or the governors, many of whom reacted far faster than the federal government in mobilizing resources to meet the oncoming onslaught on the nation’s health, FDR knew the federal government needed to lead the effort and be seen to lead, and he enlisted experts like Knudsen and Eberstadt to secure much-needed resources to efficiently ramp up the production of military equipment. World War Two was not won by generals, admirals and even the brave GIs alone. The US and the world needed private industry and its captains. So too today both the business and the medical community of researchers and front-line medical staff must also be harnessed.

Logistics can help to win wars too. It makes no difference if an army of soldiers or doctors ouruns its supply train, or is not amply re-provisioned in a timely manner. When it comes to making sure there is enough medical equipment to fight the pandemic, President Trump has in many cases, left a trail of confusion and uncertainty. He directed governors to procure their own supplies, and a desperate scramble for ventilators and protective equipment has needlessly driven up costs as states competed against each other. Having someone like Eberstad who could help guarantee the setting of priorities and distribution of key resources likely would be an excellent start. Instead one gets the impression that the current President vacillates (and it’s odd that a man like Trump who prides himself on appearing decisive should be seen as such) between making himself look like the centre of action yet delivers mixed messages.

Similarly, FDR recognized the importance of close, working partnerships with domestic leaders, both in government and the private sector. He had a bruising relationship with corporate titans earlier in his presidency but he put that aside to work closely with them in the war mobilization. President Trump might well remember that in his next phone calls with Govs. Andrew Cuomo, Gavin Newsom, Jay Inslee, and Gretchen Whitmer. He should also quickly assemble new, high-powered advisory boards to tackle the growing economic crisis.

Finally, FDR was a devoted partner in working with other, democratic leaders around the world. It can be argued that without the strong relationship between Roosevelt and British Prime Minister Winston Churchill, WWII might have led to the surrender of several, if not all, democracies.

Contrast that with the attitude the US has displayed towards its allies during the pandemic. Abrupt travel restrictions on visitors from Europe were issued without any consultation with the European Union, causing massive air travel mayhem. The government tried to get a German company to move its research wing to the US and develop a coronavirus vaccine exclusively for the US. It has closed the border to providing masks to Canada, compelling that ally to turn to China, a vociferous American competitor instead. The G-7 was unable to reach a joint statement on the pandemic because the US delegation pressed for it be called the "Wuhan virus." While strictly correct in the geographical sense, it was still an unneeded shot across the bow at a time when international cooperation is needed on so many different levels. And if Trump does indeed decide to fast track the re-opening (and some say premature) of the economy by relaxing safety standards, the US risks not only becoming the new petri dish for COVID-19, it risks re-exporting that contagion.

There is still time for Trump to change all this. As a businessman, he is, above all else, a pragmatist in a dogmatist’s clothing. He is also a proven pursuer of greatness and would doubtlessly wish to be included in the pantheon of “great” American presidents. FDR was a master of crisis leadership and it would be reassuring to the world if the "arsenal of democracy" was to embrace him as a role model. It is time for this current President to stop being a cheerleader, but become the quarterback.